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The stakes
International environmental responsibility.
If a consensus is reached by international organizations such as IPCC and the UN, over the intermingling of human induced climate change and the disappearance of Tuvalu, the impact on global environmental politics will be unprecedented. In that case countries that are not compliant with environment protection protocols, would have to take the lead in funding and implementing solutions to alleviate their negative impact on the environment and therefore provide vulnerable countries such as Tuvalu the help they need from the international community.
Local development to face climate change.
The challenge for the Tuvaluans is two folded, as they must combine adaptation to climate change with local development planning in order to better their home environment. It has been said that Tuvalu has become “a site for competing views not only on what the effects of climate change might be, but also on how to respond to them” and it struck us that local issues such as clean water access, proper sanitation and overcrowding could be dealt simultaneously with contingency planning due to climate change (seawall, food safety).
Resilience vs. Resettlement.
Tuvalu faces climate-induced displacement of its population and it could be on an even greater scale in years to come. In fact the whole population may have to be relocated thus posing great threats to the Tuvaluan people unity and the Tuvaluan government sovereignty. For now, the government has favoured “adaptation” solutions over migration to preserve the Tuvaluan way of life and to have more options on how to overcome land and property right issues for the future in case the Tuvaluans were to be relocated in neighbouring countries such as New Zealand or Fiji. Nonetheless many Tuvaluans have already planned their resettlement in case the most severe events come to pass.
The causes
The methods
The controversy
What is the Tuvalu Controversy about?
The Controversy revolving around the future of Tuvalu is built around two core questions:
- Is Tuvalu sinking into the Pacific Ocean?
- What causes the islands to sink?
If most actors agree nowadays that Tuvalu is indeed in danger, they still disagree on the nature of this very danger. There are two main types of positioning toward the first question. Some think that Tuvalu is actually sinking progressively into the Ocean and will completely disappear in the next few decades. Others believe that if the islands will not sink, it might soon become inhabitable, change shape or move away from the reef edge. Whatever of those hypotheses happens to realise in the future, their consequences will be similar for the Tuvaluans as it will force them to abandon their country.
Because it has direct consequences on the management, answers to the second core question are more split and numerous.
Four main positions exist within the debate over the causes of Tuvalu’s sinking:
- Sea-level rise due to Global Warming
- Other Global Warming induced adverse effects such as more frequent flooding and the increasing intensity of El Nino and El Nina episodes.
- Poor local management of the fragility of the territory of the island
- Natural evolution that can make islands appear and disappear
The answers of the actors to these questions, and the related sub-questions, frame the controversy in a way that can be mapped using adequate tools. This map provides us with information and insights on the way actors position themselves and so on the framework of the controversy.
If positioning themselves around the same object, Tuvalu’s future and the causes responsible for it, actors are nonetheless not debating directly. Actors with different positions tend to confront in an indirect fashion, developing their own media space in the web or publishing and writing in media supportive to their positions.
What first makes Tuvalu’s future a controversy and not a mere debate is this lack of communication between actors advocating different positions.
How a scientific debate turned into a controversy?
Two main reasons led to the turning of the scientific debate into a controversy.
First, mainstream media took over the issue notably after Ian Fry’s broadcasted intervention at the 2009 Copenhagen conference on climate, making the Tuvaluans the announced first victims of Global Warming and Tuvalu a symbol of the emergency to act globally to reduce carbon emission.
Second, Tuvalu has become a place of experiment in every fields: legal, political, economic, scientific… because of its small size making the crisis management relatively easy and because being the first state directly subjected to the supposed adverse effects of Global Warming.
It is so often seen both as a symbol, of Global Warming adverse effects or of the Global Warming conspiracy depending on the actors, and a laboratory which explains why it turned despite its small size and importance a major sub-controversy of the larger Global Warming one.
Tuvalu
Tuvalu is an island state located in the Pacific Ocean, south of the equator. The archipelago is made of nine islands, for a total area of approx. 26m2 for 11 000 inhabitants. The average height of the islands is 3 meters above sea level. The main island is Funafuti, not for its size but as it is considered the capital of the island state. Tuvalu is independent since 1978, after two centuries of British domination. The state is a member of the Commonwealth, and the head of state is Elizabeth II.
History
If signs of an early life tracing back to 8000 years were found in a cave underwater, the first signs of the Tuvaluan language appeared 2000 years ago. The islands were colonized in 1861 by Great Britain and were a strategic place for the American during the war against Japan in 1942. Thus, blocs were built on the beaches, and sand removed to build landing strips.
Population
The Tuvaluans speak English and Tuvaluan, and mainly came from the surrounding islands, many years ago.
Economy
The Tuvaluan economy is mainly based on importations, as they have nothing to export. The land cannot be cultivated. They import a lot of water, as the water that exists on the island cannot be drunk because of the infiltration of salty water. The main resource of the Tuvaluan economy is the financial aid they receive, tourism and fishing. Their currency is the Australian dollar.
Tuvalu is famous for two things. First, in 1998 it was given the title of nation “above reproach for human rights violations”. Secondly, and sadly, because some consider it might disappear under the sea. That is what we are going to talk about in our controversy.
Interview with John Connell of Sydney University
John Connell kindly answered to our questions by mail.
“What makes you think it is disappearing? I don’t believe it is”
Why did you first become interested in studying the impact of sea level rise on Tuvalu?
In 1981, I first went to Tuvalu and was fascinated by the country (and I was then involved in a large project on migration on the Pacific) and simply its economic struggle for existence, and became interested in sea level rise in 1991 when it was becoming an issue in the Pacific and SPREP (Secretariat of the Pacific Regional Environment Programme) were beginning to publish material on it.
What types of analysis/methods did you use in your study of Tuvalu?
I have never done ‘scientific’ analysis in Tuvalu (ie measures of sea level rise, geomorphology, climate etc) but have focused on the economy and migration – and collected just about anything I could find on the country.
In your opinion, why is Tuvalu disappearing and what kind of evidence supports your conclusion?
What makes you think that it is disappearing? I don’t believe it is – see Kench and Webb that you refer to below. Some parts of all atolls are eroding and some parts are accreting/growing – normal wear and tear and the impact of cyclones etc – and of course the impact of humans. As Kench and Webb show, the worst erosion is where humans have made changes which also means that there are more people in those areas to see the changes .. Again, as Kench and Webb show, flooding was also significant a century ago.
Can we put blame on a single cause and/or group of people?
Erosion can be blamed on many people and many events – as I suggested in the APV article in 2003 by events such as causeway construction, deforestation, sand mining etc (all most evident in the capital Funafuti that has grown massively since independence) – such changes have made physical events such as cyclones more damaging .. Global warming of course has multiple causes – and none are based in Tuvalu ..
“Global warming of course has multiple causes- and none are based in Tuvalu…”
Is the data collected on sea-level rise consistent with geological data (in reference to Paul Kench’s work on Tuvalu)?
Yes – I believe so – the data for the areas closest to Tuvalu where records exist, and for the few points in Tuvalu itself, show a very tiny, almost imperceptible sea level rise over recent decades – enough obviously for concern over a future where this accelerates but not in itself enough to account for significant contemporary physical changes. What has mainly caused problems in Tuvalu recently has been high (king) tides in association with El Nino events.
Has enough data been collected to come to a definitive conclusion concerning the future of Tuvalu?
No – but then where has such data been collected? As you know there is massive debate about the speed and causes of global warming – from deniers to doomsayers…and on the speed of that hinges PART of the future of Tuvalu.
But only part of it – Tuvalu is in a sense behaving like other small Polynesian countries (Niue is the best, although the most extreme, example –no problem with sea level rise there but 1200 left in Niue and 18,000 who live in New Zealand) – where economic prospects are very limited and good job opportunities are scarce.
The future of Tuvalu hinges on political and economic issues and the many decisions of individual Tuvaluan families choosing to migrate (or not) alongside environmental change.
The future can never be certain= what if a cyclone like Katrina went straight over Tuvalu? But what if oil was discovered in nearby waters?
In your opinion, who are the main actors in the debate surrounding the future of Tuvalu?
We all are in some way – given the significance of environmental change – but the main actors are the government of Tuvalu (and other Pacific states who work together through the Pacific Forum) and the governments of nearby states especially New Zealand and Australia.
Which types of communities have the most legitimacy when weighing in on this debate? (The scientific community? Journalists? The local residents? Politicians?)
Everyone has a role to play but the scientists are important in defining the nature of changing contexts – though even they are unlikely to be in agreement, given the limited amount of data. The rest must interpret all this as best they can – in a context where personal opinions are important and there are complex politics – linked to aid, economic development, migration, and, of course, power. Local residents will make their own decisions – stay or go – build a larger house etc …
Do you think that the media distorts the scientific reality of the situation in Tuvalu?
Of course – see my APV 2003 article and the various papers of Carol Farbotko. The media need a story – a disappearing country is a good one; business as usual is no story at all.. And, indeed, all journalism (and most academic studies too!) distort whatever it is they focus on simply because no study can ever be holistic.
“The media need a story- a disappearing country is a good one”
Immerse yourself in the controversy
By following this defined path, you will discover the main points of this controversy, in 7 steps:
1- A presentation of Tuvalu
2- The controversy
3- The methods
4- The causes
5-The stakes
6- An interactive mapping of the actors
7- Conclusion and going further